On Christmas day, the Chiefs had just lost to a quarterback who threw for all of 62 yards and were in a legitimate position to not only lose the AFC West, but miss out on the playoffs entirely. Fast forward a little over a month and they are back in the Super Bowl for the second year in a row and fourth time in Patrick Mahomes’ six year reign as a starter. It wasn’t an easy road for Mahomes, Reid and the Chiefs. As a matter of fact, it was arguably the hardest road in the AFC playoffs. Open wild card weekend with the high-octane Dolphin’s offense led by the former Chief speedster Tyreek Hill, next travel to Buffalo to face the red hot Bills and familiar foe Josh Allen, then finally have to beat the seemingly unstoppable Ravens in their own house.
Mahomes and the Chiefs offense have stepped up greatly come playoff time, but unlike years past, the hero of this year’s playoff run is the defense. Kansas City’s defense has been lights out, particularly in the pass game. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnola and the Chiefs defense have found ways to shut down some of the league’s best quarterbacks. Kansas City held the Dolphins to 20.9 points under their season average and held quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to 199 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception on 51.2% completion, held the Bills to 2.6 under their season average and only allowed Josh Allen to throw for 186 yards and 1 touchdown, and finally this past Sunday held Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to 17.7 under their season average and held Jackson to 272 yards on 54% completion with a touchdown and interception.
The question for the Chiefs in two weeks really lies in whether or not they can stop Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers run game, which has had its way through the playoffs and the entire regular season. Don’t be surprised if 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan can find ways to beat the Chiefs through the air as well with his arsenal of weapons. Preparing to stop the 49ers is as difficult of a task for a defensive coordinator as their will be, because they have so many ways of attacking you, George Kittle at tight end, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk at wide receiver, McCaffrey on the ground as previously mentioned, even Kyle Juszczyk at fullback. The battle between Shanahan and Spagnola’s genius offensive and defensive minds respectively will be a beauty to watch come Super Bowl Sunday.
While the Chiefs defense has been more important than ever, it is hard to not give credit to Mahomes and the offense as well who have played significantly better in the playoffs. Mahomes has thrown for 718 yards, 4 touchdowns, 0 interceptions on 68% completion so far this postseason. His favorite target through the playoffs has been his right hand man during his time in Kansas City- Travis Kelce. Kelce has 23 receptions, 262 yards and 3 touchdowns thus far in the playoffs, the touchdown figure is already over half of his regular season number. The 49ers defense are no slackers, but the Chiefs have already faced far and away the best defense in the NFL in Baltimore, so they should be more than prepared.
The story for the 49ers postseason run has been fourth quarter comebacks- something Kyle Shanhan is not known for. Entering the game against Green Bay, the 49ers under Shanahan were 0-30 trailing by five or more points entering the fourth quarter. Shanahan is actually better known for choking away late leads then he is for regaining them. As it happens, he did just that versus the Chiefs in their first superbowl matchup, allowing Mahomes to lead the Chiefs to a 31-20 victory after trailing 20-10 in the fourth. Shanahan was also the offensive coordinator of the Atlanta Falcons when they famously blew a 28-3 lead to Tom Brady in Super Bowl 51. Despite his shaky past, Shanahan and the 49ers were able to wipe the slate clean and mount two impressive comebacks late. Versus the Packers, a late drive and a Christian McCaffrey touchdown were able to secure the comeback, as they were only trailing seven points. Coming out of halftime versus the Lions however, the 49ers offense had a much bigger mountain to climb, trailing 24-7. In the second half, the 49ers were lights out on offense, not punting once.
It all stemmed from quarterback Brock Purdy who went 13-16 for 174 yards, a touchdown and no turnovers in the second half. Purdy also made a few explosive plays with his legs, rushing for 49 yards on top of his passing. Any questions about Purdy and the 49ers ability to face adversity should be put to bed now, as Purdy has cemented himself as the leader the 49ers need to succeed in big moments. While Purdy has been great, McCaffrey has been even greater, rushing for 188 yards and 4 touchdowns on 37 carries in his two postseason games.
There are a few keys to the big game for each team to have the best chance of winning. For the 49ers? Control the run, score early. While the Chiefs defense has been all but lights out, the Bills exposed one of their only weaknesses, the ground game and Christian McCaffrey is not like any back the Chiefs have faced this postseason. The Ravens hesitancy/inability to run the ball was likely one of their major downfalls in the conference championship. If the 49ers can run their offense smoothly through the ground, they should set themselves up in a position to win. As for scoring early, the 49ers have shown they are able to make impressive comebacks, but the Chiefs are a team with championship pedigree and finding yourself in a hole late in the game versus Patrick Mahomes is not the ideal scenario for a squad looking to win their first ring together. Leading early on goes hand in hand with the 49ers controlling the run game, with a lead they can control the ball on the ground and not be forced into a pass heavy offense to overcome a late deficit.
For the Chiefs? Keep the pass defense lights out, reduce turnovers, convert in the red zone. If the Chiefs are able to control the air like they have for the most part this playoffs, they should be in a good spot versus the 49ers, that is assuming they do the other two things listed. Turnovers have been an unfamiliar pest for the Chiefs offense this season, but something they have mostly limited come playoff time. If they can keep the turnovers to a minimum and walk away with seven points on their redzone trips as opposed to three, they should be able to maintain control of the game. Staying in the game offensively for Kansas City will force the 49ers to potentially have to make big passing plays late in the game, where the Chiefs defense is best. This exact scenario was shown in the Buffalo game, the Chiefs defense struggled to stop the run, but their offense kept them in the game, and when it came time for the Bills’ offense to make big plays through the air, they could not convert.
Two great coaches, the best quarterback in the league and the overall best offense in the league, two star studded defenses, and best of all, a rematch of a previous Super Bowl, making the stakes even higher. While the Chiefs and 49ers are certainly not the most liked teams in the NFL fanbase, there is no denying that this game will be an absolute thriller.
